Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.044568 0.050375 0.056829 0.064566 0.073632 0.083967 0.096714
2026-02-01 0.034411 0.041313 0.049581 0.060315 0.074034 0.091183 0.114569
2026-02-08 0.028670 0.036279 0.046016 0.059608 0.078447 0.104187 0.143001
2026-02-15 0.024325 0.032262 0.043044 0.059142 0.083253 0.119202 0.179267
2026-02-22 0.021151 0.029298 0.040999 0.059631 0.089744 0.138796 0.230076
2026-03-01 0.018529 0.026698 0.039051 0.059948 0.096291 0.160928 0.295365
2026-03-08 0.016007 0.023865 0.036290 0.058472 0.099718 0.179380 0.364044
2026-03-15 0.013485 0.020664 0.032439 0.054418 0.097667 0.187387 0.416675
2026-03-22 0.012093 0.019097 0.031055 0.054522 0.103782 0.214925 0.534819
2026-03-29 0.011088 0.018035 0.030379 0.055856 0.113032 0.254075 0.717266
2026-04-05 0.010073 0.016813 0.029219 0.056013 0.119943 0.291511 0.933358
2026-04-12 0.009163 0.015659 0.028008 0.055829 0.126186 0.331191 1.207272
2026-04-19 0.008225 0.014350 0.026333 0.054374 0.129172 0.364666 1.511910
2026-04-26 0.007317 0.012989 0.024355 0.051826 0.128558 0.387281 1.809854
2026-05-03 0.006758 0.012245 0.023559 0.051985 0.135989 0.444662 2.434787
2026-05-10 0.006271 0.011585 0.022842 0.052210 0.143947 0.511710 3.323404
2026-05-17 0.005888 0.011091 0.022424 0.053152 0.154883 0.602931 4.768763
2026-05-24 0.005531 0.010608 0.021955 0.053864 0.165589 0.705842 6.888955
2026-05-31 0.005114 0.009950 0.020982 0.052921 0.169973 0.782104 9.218347
2026-06-07 0.004615 0.009058 0.019324 0.049599 0.163822 0.792407 10.631271
2026-06-14 0.004355 0.008676 0.018877 0.049914 0.173017 0.914100 15.625268
2026-06-21 0.004170 0.008443 0.018770 0.051301 0.187832 1.100497 25.603901
2026-06-28 0.003951 0.008109 0.018357 0.051600 0.198069 1.272678 40.006697